Fear Dominates Online Talk About 2026 Midterms, Montclair Study Finds

A Montclair State University study of 1.69 million online mentions finds fear drove 51% of 2026 midterm election conversation, and negative emotions appeared in 93% of posts

Montclair, NJ (11/03/2026) — A team of faculty from the Joetta Di Bella and Fred C. Sautter III Center for Strategic Communication in the College of Communication and Media (CCOM) at Montclair State University finds that online discussion surrounding the 2026 U.S. midterm elections was dominated by Trump and Republican-related narratives, while fear emerged as the most prevalent emotional response across social media conversations. Drawing on more than 1.69 million online mentions and additional analysis of X posts, the research suggests that heightened online visibility did not necessarily correspond with positive sentiment; right-leaning online spaces posted negatively about the current administration by a 2-to-1 margin. Broadly, election-related discussion was shaped largely by uncertainty, controversy and concern about future political outcomes.

Highlights from the study include:

• Negative sentiment toward Trump substantially exceeded positive sentiment on X by a 2-to-1 margin. Analysis of 35,000 Trump-related posts found 10,450 negative posts compared with 5,389 positive posts.
• Fear dominated election conversations online, accounting for 51% of all discussion, while negative emotions overall represented 93% of the 1.69 million posts analyzed.
• Trump and Republican-related narratives accounted for approximately 59% of all election-related social media conversations. This generated more than twice the visibility of Democratic-related discussions.
• Despite Republican online visibility, discussion of a potential Democratic blue wave generated more than 44,000 posts and hundreds of millions of views on X, with conversation volume increasing sharply as Election Day approached.
• Election-related discussion volume surged 92% in October, reaching nearly 1.7 million mentions. More than 72% of those conversations occurred on X.

The study was conducted by faculty members Dr. Yi Luo, Dr. Bond Benton and Dr. Jin-A Choi, director of data analytics for the center.

"The data suggest that online political discussion before the election was driven less by enthusiasm and more by anxiety, uncertainty, and concern about political consequences," said Dr. Luo, a professor of strategic communication. "It's notable that partisan online spaces shared similar levels of negativity about the current context," said Dr. Benton, a professor of communication.